“We are quite optimistic about next year”, said Andrew Tilton from Goldman Sachs. “We think there is still room for growth in many parts of the world, including in Asia”, added he.
But China’s plans to lower financial risk are one of the key unknowns. The authorities in Beijing have pledged to focus less on the pace of economic growth but instead to make it more sustainable.
“This is one of the key debates. The pace with which they will decide to act and their ability to implement the measures is gradually key to 2018. China is close to half of global investment so managing this region’s tightening and gradual investment slowdown is key not only for China, but for the whole world”, said also Andrew Tilton.
China’s indebtedness is expected to rise to 327% of GDP by 2022, according to a Bloomberg Economics report last week. In addition, a number of authorities have warned that credit should be mastered.
As for the rest of Asia, Tilton points out that India’s economy will be stronger than expected. Moody’s rating agency surprised markets last week by raising India’s rating for the first time since 2004.